World Cup 2026 Simulator
Probabilistic model that called Spain as champion and Norway as the breakout team.
Overview
A statistical model built to predict the 2026 World Cup. It takes each team's historical strength, models each match's goals as a bivariate Poisson process, and simulates the full tournament thousands of times to derive the probability of every outcome.
Problem
Football predictions are usually opinion dressed up as analysis. I wanted an answer that came from the data: not "who I think wins", but "in how many of ten thousand simulated World Cups does each team win".
Solution
ELO ratings per national team fed with real historical data, a bivariate Poisson model that captures the correlation between both teams' goals, and a Monte Carlo simulation that runs the full tournament — group stage and knockouts — thousands of times.
Technical Architecture
Tech Stack
Results
Called Spain as the 2026 World Cup champion
Called Norway as the breakout team of the tournament
49,000 historical matches from 244 national teams processed
Anti-hallucination policy: missing data counts as 0, never invented
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